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已发布: 19 六月 2024

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024

3. Sub-index and dimension trends

Despite energy security challenges, overall improvement is driven by recovery in equity and continued progress in sustainability, alongside strong transition readiness.

3.1 System Performance

To achieve an effective energy transition, nations must navigate a delicate balance across the equitable, secure and sustainable dimensions (Figure 8). Over the past decade, 81% of countries tracked by the ETI have witnessed improvements in their energy system performance, indicating strong growth. Global average system performance scores have steadily increased by 3%, with sustainability increasing by 6% and security by 3%. However, improvement trends vary across dimensions due to competing priorities, economic uncertainties and geopolitical complexities.

Figure 8: System performance dimension scores year-on-year change, 2015-2024

The global average score for energy security declined in 2024, compared to equity and sustainability scores, primarily due to countries switching from net exporters to net importers, as a small number of net exporters gained more market share. Also, flexibility in the electricity system reduced because of limited coal-to-gas switching due to high gas prices, slowing down the decade-long trend of security. Equity scores have improved by 0.2% in 2024, largely due to wholesale gas prices declining by nearly 40% in 2023 compared to 2022 whereas energy subsidies continue to increase steadily, with 2022 levels at three times the level compared to 2020. The sustainability dimension has shown the most advancement, marked by substantial renewable energy capacity additions in 2023. The evolution of countries across these dimensions in the past decade is further explored in the following sections.

Equity

The imperative for achieving an equitable energy transition is rooted in the pivotal role of the energy sector in driving socioeconomic growth. This involves affordable access to modern and clean forms of energy for all, supporting the continuity of economic development57 and ensuring that the benefits and opportunities of transitioning to a clean energy system are accessible to and shared among all segments of society.58 Equity efforts aim to prevent historically marginalized communities from bearing a disproportionate burden of negative impacts.

While the energy transition offers the potential to create new jobs and economic opportunities, improve livelihoods and empower individuals, communities and societies, if not managed properly, it also risks exacerbating costs and inequalities, impacting vulnerable populations. Therefore, leaders often face the challenge of implementing policies and infrastructure investments that support economic growth while maximizing social welfare and ensuring access to diverse and affordable energy sources.59

The ETI’s equitable dimension tracks the access, affordability and economic development of the energy system. Since 2015, the global average score for the equitable dimension has seen a slight 1% decline, with a recent increase of 0.2% from 2023 to 2024 and a 3% decline from 2022 to 2023 following market signals, as shown in Figure 9. Notably, this dimension is the only one showing negative progress over the past decade. Oman, Israel, the US and Qatar are leading in 2024, while countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, including the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe rank in the lowest quartile. Although global average scores for energy access have seen gains since
2015, scores for energy affordability and economic development have declined by 8% and 2%, respectively. This can be attributed to the lingering effects of the energy crisis and the significant shock to energy prices experienced in 2022, leading to increased household expenditures, as well as the rapid reintroduction of energy subsidies at higher levels. However, these trends vary by country, depending on their stage of economic development.

Figure 9: ETI equitable dimension trend, 2015-2024

Geopolitical conflicts and disruptions in key energy-producing regions, like the Middle East and Ukraine, rattled global energy supply chains, leading to shortages and subsequent price hikes.

ETI trends also show that while the rate of access to electricity in urban and rural areas as well as access to clean cooking fuels has slowed in the past three years, electricity prices remain high across several regions and countries. As economies reopened post-COVID-19-pandemic lockdowns in 2021, global gas and electricity prices began to surge, escalating further in 2022 amid the Russia-Ukraine war, reaching unprecedented levels. Throughout 2022, wholesale gas and electricity prices in Europe and other regions hit record highs, with concerns about potential disruptions to supply, prompting government interventions to ensure affordability for households.60 While electricity and gas prices have started to stabilize, particularly in Europe, they still remain higher than they were in 2022.61 These high prices continue to fuel inflationary pressures that deter investments in countries already dealing with greater volatility. They also disproportionately affect low-income households and exacerbate major concerns regarding fair and equitable energy transition.

Moreover, global energy subsidies surged in 2022, followed by a slight decline thereafter. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), subsidies for fossil fuel consumption exceeded $1 trillion for the first time as governments moved to shield consumers and businesses from rising energy prices.62 However, these subsidies pose significant challenges for governments facing tightening fiscal space and competing spending priorities while also reducing incentives for consumers to adapt energy consumption to price levels. Improper management of subsidies can disproportionately impact vulnerable households, fuel social unrest and exacerbate inequality.63

Equity issues remain largely unsolved and are often less prioritized and understood as compared to energy sustainability and security.

Energy equity encompasses various dimensions within and across nations and stakeholders. The lack of affordable access to modern forms of energy remains a significant concern in many countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where
significant portions of the population still lack electricity access. At the current rate of progress, the world will reach only 92% of electrification by 2030.64 Simultaneously, transitioning to cleaner energy systems, whether in advanced or developing nations, necessitates substantial policy changes and infrastructure investments. Despite the strong business and economic case, complications often
arise from misinformation or concerns among affected communities, leading to resistance at the grassroots level against externally imposed changes and clean energy infrastructure projects. Additionally, there is a risk of growing disparities in access to clean energy investments and technologies, often accompanied by mistrust and uncertainty regarding the benefits of government policies and business actions. These factors also make it challenging for companies to plan and invest effectively, potentially slowing down the energy transition.65

The World Economic Forum’s 2024 report, Building Trust Through an Equitable and Inclusive Energy Transition, deep dives into equity as a key dimension of the energy system and a concern for stakeholders at various levels: for individuals, communities, businesses and governments. Despite growing awareness, this dimension remains under pressure, especially in a period characterized by crises, turbulence in energy markets and shifting geopolitical priorities, where energy security and sustainability are often prioritized and better understood by decision-makers.

Advancing an equitable energy transition is a key topic in global discourse, prompting policymakers to implement targeted programs to address these issues.

Some countries like Brazil, Canada and India have successfully built the case for an equitable energy transition in their respective contexts. Brazil currently holds the G20 presidency and emphasizes the social dimension of the energy transition, aiming for a fair and inclusive process, as well as allocating resources appropriately and promptly in response to the climate crisis.66 With its abundant biodiversity, extensive renewable energy potential and significant industrial base, the country has been making strides towards an equitable transition through the Industrial Deep Decarbonization Initiative. This initiative allows Brazil to address challenges in sectors such as cement, steel, aluminium and petrochemicals. It prioritizes social safety nets, community engagement and workforce reskilling, thus ensuring that economic growth aligns with environmental sustainability and social justice.67

Similarly, Canada has been emphasizing clean energy projects that prioritize partnerships with Indigenous communities, with a strong focus on promoting asset ownership among these groups. As a result, Indigenous communities now own a
significant portion of Canada’s power generation capacity, reflecting a commitment to fostering equitable participation and benefit-sharing in the country’s clean energy transition. Meanwhile, India has been focusing on leveraging energy for income generation and supporting microenterprises through
the productive use of renewable energy sources. This approach is facilitated by policy frameworks that advocate for distributed renewable energy (DRE) solutions aimed at supporting livelihoods. There is also a strong emphasis on ensuring the affordability and economic viability of these solutions, underscoring India’s commitment to promoting sustainable energy practices that benefit local communities and drive economic growth.

Effective interventions in achieving energy equity require careful design and targeting. This includes implementing social safety nets and compensatory measures such as cash transfers and temporary basic income initiatives, with a focus on alleviating the burden on low-income households most affected by energy-related costs.

The transition to an equitable energy system involves the collective efforts of multiple stakeholders and requires strengthening and expanding current measurement mechanisms.

Measuring progress towards an equitable energy transition poses a challenge for decision-makers, necessitating the development of stronger analytical frameworks and metrics beyond what the ETI currently captures. Metrics play a key role in operationalizing energy equity and guiding investment and policy decisions that shape the transition. However, given the multifaceted nature of energy equity, establishing metrics and designing policies to measure progress entails first addressing the issue of taxonomy and understanding what constitutes social impact. This process involves laying down a set of foundational principles and developing frameworks and specific indicators to assess impact at various individual, local, national and international levels between nations.

The process of creating analytical frameworks begins with establishing a clear definition of equitable energy transition, tailored to local contexts and accounting for current priorities, historical contexts and specific challenges within each region or country’s unique energy transition journey.68 Then, the main inequities in the energy system need to be identified, which can then serve as guiding principles. A potential framework for measuring energy equity could include a 2x2 matrix considering “light” energy equity and “deep” energy equity.

Light energy equity metrics could focus on measurable quantitative indicators such as:

  • Access to clean energy: Percentage of households with access to electricity from clean and renewable sources.
  • Affordability: Energy expenditure as a percentage of income, energy prices relative to income, energy burden (the proportion of income spent on energy bills), vulnerability to utility service disconnections.
  • Asset ownership: Distribution of ownership of renewable energy infrastructure and resources among different socioeconomic groups.
  • Job creation: Number of jobs created in the renewable energy sector per capita or as a percentage of total employment.

Deep energy equity metrics may involve more qualitative or nuanced indicators that capture broader socioeconomic considerations, such as:

  • Community engagement: Level of participation and decision-making power of marginalized and Indigenous communities in energy planning and policy development.
  • Health and well-being: Measures of community health outcomes, including reductions in respiratory illnesses and other health conditions related to energy use.
  • Social cohesion: Indicators of social capital, community resilience and trust among diverse stakeholders involved in the energy transition.
  • Equity in decision-making: Representation of marginalized and Indigenous groups in energy governance structures and decision-making processes.

By incorporating both light and deep energy equity metrics, policy-makers and stakeholders can gain a comprehensive understanding of the equity implications of energy policies and initiatives. This approach enables more intentional design of systems, technology and procedures to ensure a fair and equitable distribution of benefits across the energy system.

Security

Energy security, defined as the continuous availability of energy sources at a reasonable price, has become a prominent topic for countries amid the current energy crisis, driven by market volatilities and disruptions in supply. This period is
also characterized by lower investment in traditional energy assets, coupled with an unexpectedly rapid economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, which has strained energy supply chains. This led to concerns about gas availability for winter heating, reduced industrial activity and pressure on government budgets allocated for energy subsidies. Additionally, recent tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz where roughly a quarter of global oil trade flows,70 have added an additional layer of uncertainty to energy security.

The ETI’s secure dimension focuses on energy supply, reliability and resilience. The increase in recent shocks has led to security scores slightly decreasing (-0.6%) in 2024. However, these shocks have been partially offset by countries significantly increasing diversity across import counterparts and energy sources. Thus, this decline has been marginal as most countries have found alternatives. Nevertheless, the focus on security may have come at the expense of energy equity and sustainability, reflected in declining equity scores, and slowing down sustainability momentum. Figure 9 shows the secure dimension score over time.

Advanced economies like the US, Norway, Australia and Estonia score high due to mature energy infrastructure. These countries exhibit strong diversity in energy sources as well as import counterparts. Malaysia also scores highly due to supply diversity, while major fuel exporters like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan, score highly due to their gas reserves. For these countries, a key strategic imperative is to maintain energy security while transitioning to decarbonized energy systems.

Figure 10: ETI secure dimension trend, 2015-2024

Countries have, for the most part, prioritized mitigating energy security risks, partially at the expense of equity and sustainability.

Countries like Colombia, despite being oil producers, have improved energy security in recent years through renewable sources like hydropower and bioenergy.71 Meanwhile, Egypt’s increased domestic energy consumption, coupled with heavy reliance on natural gas for electricity generation, poses energy security risks. Nonetheless, the country’s commitment to enhancing the diversity of its energy mix, increased contribution of renewable energy and advancing infrastructure development has effectively mitigated these risks over the past year.72 Similarly, Poland has risen in the ETI ranking in this dimension by diversifying energy import counterparts away from Russian gas.73

Several countries are faced with a dual challenge in ensuring energy security: reducing net energy imports while diversifying energy import counterparts.

In recent years, a noticeable trend has emerged in the global energy landscape: the slight uptick in net energy imports across most countries. Economic growth and intensified industrial activities have led to increased energy demand, often surpassing domestic production capacities. Consequently, countries must rely more on imports to meet their energy needs, ensuring the stability of their energy supplies. Out of 120 countries analysed in the ETI, 86 are net energy importers in 2024 and only 34 of them are net energy exporters, as shown in Figure 11.

Another notable trend is the improvement in the diversity of energy import counterparts. This evolution stems from an increased awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on a limited number of energy suppliers, which leaves countries more exposed to risks such as geopolitical instability, supply disruptions and price volatility. To mitigate these risks, nations have diversified their energy import portfolios, sourcing from a wider array of countries and exploring alternative energy sources beyond traditional fossil fuels.

Technological advancements and international cooperation have facilitated this diversification. Renewable energy technologies, such as solar and wind, have become more cost-effective and reliable. Additionally, the development of LNG markets has enabled more flexible and geographically diverse energy trading, reducing dependency on pipeline-bound gas supplies and facilitating importation from distant producers.

Thus, diversification is key. This helps reduce risk and improves resilience but necessitates new approaches to energy storage at grid-scale, regional interconnectors, a range of generation strategies at both small and large scale such as smart grids for distributed smaller scale generation, and changes in energy policy.

Figure 11: Spread of countries on Energy Transition Index security indicators

Countries need to prioritize six key factors to enhance energy security: supply security, demand management, market and regulatory measures, building global and regional trust, ensuring system stability, and strengthening system security.

The World Economic Forum’s 2023 report, Securing the Energy Transition, analyses the security dimension. The priority actions remain important as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and strain the energy system:

  • System security: Enhance capabilities and focus on risk management in both traditional (physical) and emerging areas (such as cybersecurity) due to increased digitalization and connectivity in energy systems.
  • Supply security: Boost the domestic clean energy mix and secure critical mineral supply chains to lessen import reliance and broaden trading networks.
  • Demand management: Promote efficient demand management by emphasizing energy efficiency and transitioning materials. Encourage behavioural changes and demand responsiveness through effective policies, tools and communication.
  • System stability: Quicken stability improvements to bolster the system’s reliability and resilience and invest in transmission and distribution networks.
  • Global and regional trust: Work collaboratively to minimize risks and capital costs associated with the transition, drawing on global and regional financial and technological expertise.
  • Market and regulatory measures: Pursue strategic investments in clean energy while managing the phasing out and repurposing of existing infrastructure.

Sustainability

The ETI defines its sustainability dimension based on a mix of energy efficiency, decarbonization and advancements towards clean energy systems. Over the past decade, this dimension has seen a 6% growth globally (Figure 12).

In 2023, total energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 1.1%, reaching a record high of 37.4 gigatonnes (Gt). This increase contrasts with the urgent need to rapidly curb emissions to align with the climate objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement. Despite this surge, emissions increased significantly slower than growth in global GDP, which shows there is positive trend in improved carbon and energy intensity of economic growth. Over the past decade, emissions increased by slightly over 0.5% annually. This trajectory cannot be attributed solely to the COVID-19 pandemic; although emissions experienced a sharp decline in 2020, they rebounded to pre-pandemic levels the following year. Furthermore, GDP growth slowdown does not account for this trend, as it has averaged 3% annually over the last decade, in line with the preceding 50 years.

Adding to concerns, global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold for the first time in 2024, starting in January, making it the warmest year on record. This was driven by intensified heat from escalating ocean temperatures and the “El Niño” effect, underscoring the urgent need for decisive action to address climate change.

Emissions grew slower than global GDP in 2023, signalling decoupling of emissions from economic growth.

COP28 marked the completion of the first global assessment of efforts to combat climate change under the Paris Agreement. The assessment revealed insufficient progress in various aspects across climate action, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing resilience to climate impacts. Consequently, countries collectively agreed upon measures to accelerate the shift away from
fossil fuels, with a specific target of tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.

Costa Rica, Sweden and Paraguay lead the sustainability dimension charts for 2024. Countries from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean rank in the top quartiles whereas countries from the Middle East, North Africa and
Pakistan region rank in the lowest quartiles on the sustainable dimension, despite their above-average performances in the equitable and secure dimensions.

However, coal capacity continues to grow, exhibiting 2% growth in 2023, mainly driven by China and a slowdown in phasing out in the US and Europe. Coal capacity grew for the first time outside of China since 2019.77

Figure 12: ETI sustainable dimension trend, 2015-2024

Despite significant strides in renewable energy adoption, global emissions continue to rise. It is essential to distinguish between the growth of renewable energy and the trajectory of emissions. Notably, a modest decline in emissions growth from 1.3% in 2022 to 1.1% growth in 2023 can be attributed to factors such as coal-to-gas switching, weaker industrial production in some countries and milder weather conditions, rather than the expansion of renewable energy sources alone. The global sustainability scores need to improve further to accelerate the transition, as advancements in this dimension directly impact net-zero goals.

Figure 13: Energy intensity and CO2 intensity trend, 2015-2024

Engaging oil and gas exporting nations to prioritize emissions reduction is crucial for effective climate action. This includes adopting cleaner energy technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and methane detection methods. Leveraging existing infrastructure, oil and gas exporting countries can advance the hydrogen economy by repurposing assets for hydrogen production and investing in hydrogen technologies powered by renewable energy or natural gas with carbon sequestration.

As an example, Canada’s province of British Columbia first implemented a carbon tax in 2008. By 2019, as their carbon price went from CAD 10 (Canadian dollars) to CAD 40 per tonne of CO2, carbon emissions per person decreased by 12%, twice as fast as those in the country overall. This policy recycled revenue in the form of cuts to personal and corporate income taxes, low-income tax credits and a property tax reduction for northern and rural homeowners, making it more equitable while also incentivizing emissions reduction. Encouraged by this success and the public support for British Columbia’s carbon pricing, the Canadian federal government followed suit in 2018, instituting a requirement for provinces to either adopt a strong climate policy of their own or accept a “backstop” federal carbon tax, known as the fuel charge. This carbon tax applies to 22 different forms of fossil fuels currently. The price basis was CAD 65 per tonne of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023 and will increase by CAD 15 per tonne each year until 2030 when it hits CAD 170.

In 2023, renewable energy witnessed unprecedented growth, marking a record year with nearly 510 gigawatts (GW) of added capacity globally.

This surge, which is the fastest growth rate in the past two decades, was predominantly driven by solar energy, which accounted for 75% of the added capacity in 2023. The largest growth occurred in China, as it alone commissioned as much solar PV capacity in 2023 as the entire world did in the previous year, while also experiencing a 66% year-on-year increase in wind additions. It is important to note that some countries experienced a slowdown in wind adoption, with some governments reducing subsides. It is critical for these companies to achieve higher levels of efficiencies to offset the reduction in subsidies.78 However, the transition of energy-intensive industries such as steel, cement, aluminium and chemicals manufacturing to clean energy sources requires additional solutions beyond renewables alone.

Figure 14: Country density based on 2030 targets derived from IEA Net Zero 2030 scenarios

Energy efficiency can help save costs, reduce emissions, and improve energy security. A 2024 World Economic Forum report, Transforming Energy Demand, shows a $2 trillion annual economic savings potential and 31% energy efficiency gain that can be unlocked by 2030 in industry, transport and buildings through business action, enabling policies and public private partnerships. Further, the pivotal role of electrification cannot be underestimated both to achieve efficiency gains and reduce carbon intensity of energy production. According to the IEA, investments in energy efficiency technologies increased by 16% to $600 billion in 2022, which is a record high.79 This includes growth in electrification, end-use renewables and efficient buildings.

Recent trends, such as the decline in EV80 adoption juxtaposed with the rise in heat pump installations in the EU, underscore this point. Electrification, especially in sectors like transport and heating, holds potential to improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, integrating discussions on electrification alongside energy efficiency efforts is imperative to maximize climate mitigation impact. By recognizing the complementary nature of these strategies, policymakers and stakeholders can develop more holistic approaches to advance sustainable energy transitions and combat climate change effectively. For example, Norway offers incentives such as tax exemptions, toll discounts and free parking for EV owners, leading to a rapid increase in EV adoption and contributing to the country’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2030.

Addressing the challenge of rising emissions necessitates a comprehensive approach that considers the complexities of the entire energy system and seeks to transition towards a sustainable, low-carbon future.

3.2 Transition Readiness

The ETI’s transition readiness sub-index is rooted in various factors, including the stability of the policy environment, the level of political commitment, the investment climate, access to capital, consumer engagement, and the development and adoption of new technologies. These elements collectively shape a country’s ability to steer its energy transition effectively. While some factors, such as skills or the quality of transport infrastructure, extend beyond the energy system, they significantly influence the trajectory and success of the energy transition and are explicitly acknowledged as part of the sub-index.81

Over the past decade, transition readiness has shown a positive trend, marked by notable advancements and strong year-on-year growth in key enablers such as regulation and political commitment, infrastructure, and education and human capital (Figure 15). In 2024, South Korea, Japan and China emerge, alongside leading advanced European economies, among the top 20 countries exhibiting the most enabling environment for the energy transition, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Venezuela, Yemen and Bangladesh rank in the lowest quartile.

Figure 15: ETI transition readiness trend, 2015-2024

Tangible progress is evident in enhancing transition readiness, particularly in regulation and political commitment, education and human capital, and infrastructure.

Regulation and political commitment, which is one of the direct enablers for the energy transition, has seen a notable increase, with two consecutive years of over 3% year-on-year growth in scores. Driven primarily by carbon pricing mechanisms and country commitments, the growth in this dimension underscores the impact of recent global policy focus on accelerating the energy transition. In 2024, Luxembourg, Denmark and Switzerland emerge as top performers in this regard. Additionally, South Korea and Canada along with a cohort of leading advanced European economies, demonstrate a strong enabling regulatory environment to accelerate the energy transition. Canada is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by implementing measures to cap and reduce emissions from the oil and gas sector by 2030. The Canadian government also introduced five investment tax credits to encourage capital investments supporting the energy transition.82

Education and human capital have also experienced rapid growth over the years, particularly as the number of jobs in low-carbon industries surged. Clean energy jobs accounted for around 50% of total jobs in the energy sector in 2023.83 As the global energy transition gains momentum, significant shifts are expected in the jobs landscape. While most regions saw growth in clean energy jobs over the
past three years, the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan and emerging and developing Asia stand out as exceptions. Furthermore, China, currently housing the largest energy workforce globally, witnessed significant changes between 2019 and 2022. During this period, clean energy jobs in China increased by 2 million, while fossil fuel-related jobs decreased by 600,000. Today, 60% of the
country’s energy workforce is employed in clean sectors, largely attributed to the significant buildout of clean tech manufacturing, which has been a major driver of employment growth.84 The US’s IRA has sparked an investment and manufacturing boom that is driving long-term economic growth across the country and creating jobs in underserved communities. Companies have committed over $242 billion in new investments to build the clean energy economy, including EVs, batteries and energy storage, clean energy manufacturing, and clean power generation, among others.85 As of September 2023, more than 211,350 new clean energy jobs were created,86 with projections indicating approximately 1.5 million jobs over the coming decade.87

Renewable energy infrastructure has also witnessed growth. Globally, countries have added to their renewable capacities, driven by the widespread availability and maturity of renewable technologies. Notably, Brazil and Chile emerge as top performers in 2024, ranking among the top 20 countries in this regard, alongside leading advanced European economies. Brazil, known globally for having one of the cleanest electricity mixes, has seen continuous expansion in its renewable energy industry. Large hydropower plants play a significant role in the country’s domestic electricity generation, contributing to its global leadership in renewable energy deployment.88 Similarly, Chile generates 35% of its energy from solar and wind,89 evidenced by substantial infrastructure development and the emergence of a thriving renewable energy industry, which enjoys enduring political support and active engagement from established companies invested in its success.90

However, there has been a decline in innovation growth, with companies and the public sector struggling to keep pace with the significant advancements required in research and development (R&D). Despite this downturn, emerging economies like China and India have demonstrated their ability to rapidly adopt and even lead in new energy technologies and value chains. China has seen significant growth in areas like batteries, EVs and high-voltage transmission, while India has substantially expanded its renewable energy capacity and made advancements in clean hydrogen. China continues to allocate the largest share of its GDP towards investments in renewables, followed by Finland, Poland, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Financing the transition, particularly in emerging and developing economies, is a significant focus, with a growing emphasis on exploring innovative methods.

The global energy future increasingly depends on the decisions made in emerging and developing economies. While energy consumption in these regions remains relatively low, without substantial action to transform their energy systems, these economies are likely to contribute to the bulk of emissions growth in the coming decades.91 Trillions of dollars of investments are needed annually to decarbonize emerging economies.92 Despite the higher growth rates and energy supply deficits prevalent in many parts of the emerging and developing nations, investment tends to be heavily concentrated in some advanced economies. According to S&P Global, “with $8 of every $10 of current renewable energy investment going to projects in developed economies plus China”, this leaves a significant portion of the global population behind.93

Private sector investment hinges on attractive risk-adjusted returns and the bankability of projects, which depends on several factors. Among these, the cost of capital is crucial, with variations driven by factors like country and currency risks, as well as the policy environment. In many emerging and developing economies, debt and equity costs can soar up to seven times higher than those in
the US or Europe.94 Additionally, investors face a lack of transparency regarding the actual cost, making it difficult for them to actually price risk and for policy-makers to take effective action.95 When projects are not commercially viable, concessional finance, government support and guarantees from multilateral development banks (MDBs) can be instrumental in making them bankable. In the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, despite substantial growth in energy demand, renewable power development lags due to inadequate policy and investment frameworks. According to the IEA, “regulatory barriers, incumbent interests and inflexible commercial arrangements have perpetrated the prioritization of fossil generation over renewable”.96

The rising global focus on emissions reduction is driving the market for green bonds,97 while energy efficiency also emerges as a cost-effective means to reduce energy demand.98 De-risking initiatives play a significant role in unlocking private capital for sustainable energy projects. For instance, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the African Energy Guarantee Facility offers insurance against political risks for green energy projects aligned with EU guidelines. Similarly, in Nigeria, InfraCredit’s guarantees have facilitated access to local currency debt finance from the domestic bond market for energy infrastructure projects valued at $300 million.99 Standardizing climate assessments at the national level in developing countries can further stimulate domestic private finance for energy transition projects.100 Additionally, there is an opportunity to leverage philanthropies, development finance institutions and private capital to foster partnerships. Through these measures, stakeholders can enhance the financial viability of the energy transition and accelerate progress towards climate goals. The Network to Mobilize Investment for Clean Energy in the Global South is a unique World Economic Forum community of public and private sector stakeholders engaged in promoting knowledge exchange and developing practical solutions to unlock barriers and solutions to scale capital for energy transition in emerging and developing economies.

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