完整报告
已发布: 10 一月 2024

Global Risks Report 2024

Acknowledgement 

Contributors

Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart

Head, Global Risks

Sophie Heading

Lead, Global Risks

Kevin Kohler

Specialist, Global Risks

Saadia Zahidi

Managing Director, World Economic Forum

At the World Economic Forum, a debt of gratitude is owed to Professor Klaus Schwab (Founder and Executive Chairman) and Børge Brende (President), under whose guidance this report has been produced.

This report has relied heavily on the dedication and expertise of World Economic Forum colleagues: Attilio di Battista, Ricky Li, Gayle Markovitz, Cam Powers, Samuel Werthmüller, and Yann Zopf.

Special gratitude is due to John Scott (Head of Sustainability Risk, Zurich Insurance Group) and Richard Smith-Bingham (Executive Director, Marsh McLennan Advantage) for their contributions throughout the planning and drafting of the report.

The report has greatly benefited from the insight and expertise of the members of the Global Risks Report Advisory Board: Rolf Alter (Hertie School of Governance), Azeem Azhar (Exponential View), Amitabh Behar (Oxfam), Winnie Byanyima (UNAIDS), Nita Farahany (Duke University), Niall Ferguson (Stanford University), Marie-Valentine Florin (International Risk Governance Center), Charles Godfray (Oxford Martin School), Jim Leape (Stanford University), Robert Muggah (Igarapé Institute), Jonathan D. Ostry (Georgetown University), Carol Ouko-Misiko (Institute of Risk Management), Eduardo Pedrosa (Pacific Economic Cooperation Council), Danny Quah (National University of Singapore), Daniel Ralph (Cambridge Centre for Risks Studies), Pardis Sabeti (Harvard University), Samir Saran (Observer Research Foundation), John Scott (Zurich Insurance Group), Richard Smith-Bingham (Marsh McLennan), Effy Vayena (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Charlotte Warakaulle (CERN), Amy Webb (Future Today Institute), Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Graduate Institute Geneva), Ngaire Woods (University of Oxford), and Alexandra Zapata Hojel (Future Tense Now).

Marsh McLennan: Amy Barnes, Helga Birgden, Kate Bravery, Kate Brett, Stephanie Brunermer, Anthony Charrie, Jonathan Cross, Bruno Dotti, Angela Duca, Nicholas Faull, Lorna Friedman, Jason Groves, Erick Gustafson, Vanessa Hodge, Jaymin Kim, Amy Laverock, Marshall Lee, Paul Mee, Maurizio Quintavalle, Thomas Reagan, Nick Robson, Reid Sawyer, Ben Simpfendorfer, Steven Sowden, Swenja Surminski, Daniel Tannebaum, Roberto Varini and Rupert Watson.

Zurich Insurance Group: Paige Adams, Elisabeth Bechtold, Ines Bourbon, Laura Castellano, Matt Holmes, Guy Miller, Pavel Osipyants, Darren Richardson, and Iwan Stalder.

Chief Risk Officers Community: Cherie Axelrod (Western Union), Barbara Badoino (Novartis International AG), Alison Bewick (Nestle), Christian Bluhm (UBS AG), Brenda Boultwood (International Monetary Fund), Vanessa Candela (Celonis), Manoj Chawla (Emirates NBD), James Cashmore (OakNorth Bank), David Crofts (Mubadala Investment Company), Susan Daniel (Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company), Diane Doering (Takeda Pharmaceutical Company), Mohamed Dukandar (e&), Andressa Duran (Vale), Adam Farber (Boston Consulting Group), Ed Fishwick (BlackRock), François-Marie Gardet (Holcim), Peter Giger (Zurich Insurance Group), Amy Gradnik (S&P Global), Bob Graham (Deloitte), Karen Griffin (Mastercard), Arun Hari (Gulf International Bank), Erin Harris (Accenture), Bahare Heywood (Clifford Chance LLP), Enrica Marra (Mundys), Eugenio Montrucchio (ENEL), Jody Myers (US International Development Finance Corporation), Heike Niebergall-Lackner (International Committee of the Red Cross), Fiachre O'Neil (PayPal), Sriram Ramchandran (Mahindra Group), Hanne Raatikainen (Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), Pradeep Rana (First Abu Dhabi Bank), Senem Rena (Aydem Enerji), Andreas Schuler (Vattenfall), Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder (World Bank), Richard Smith-Bingham (Marsh McLennan), Iliyana Tsanova (European Commission), Gary Turner (Bain & Company Inc), Yoshihiro Uotani (SOMPO Holdings), Alex Vallejo (PG&E), and Jacob van der Blij (UNICEF).

Global Future Council on Complex Risks: Azeem Azhar (Exponential View), Antonius Alijoyo (Center for Risk Management and Sustainability), Saif Al-Dhaheri (UAE National Emergency and Crisis Management Authority), Nayef Al-Rodhan (Oxford University), Abdullahi Alim (International Chamber of Commerce), Alta Charo (University of Wisconsin), Lisa Donahue (AlixPartners), Peter Engelke (Atlantic Council), Roya Ensafi (University of Michigan), Florence Gaub (NATO Defence College), Maha Hosain Aziz (New York University), Vikram Mansharamani (Independent Thinker), Nasser bin Nasser (Ambit Advisory), Mwanda Phiri (Charter Cities Institute), Frida Polli (Alethia) Maxime Stauffer (Simon Institute for Longterm Governance), Araz Taeihagh (National University of Singapore), Anna Tunkel (DP World), Ngaire Woods (University of Oxford), Ya-Qin Zhang (Tsinghua University), and Marija Zima-Bockarjova (ABB).

We extend our thanks to the Institute of Risk Management (IRM) (Carol Ouko-Misiko and Victoria Robinson) for support in disseminating the GRPS.

A special thanks to experts who contributed to our thematic consultations: Asanga Abeyagoonasekera (The Millennium Project), Victoria Alexeeva (WMO), Rolf Alter (Hertie School), Laura H. Atuesta Becerra (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica), Edda Sif Pind Aradóttir (Carbfix), Govindasamy Bala (Indian Institute of Science), Amitabh Behar (Oxfam), Rob Beyer (IOM), Jana Birner (UNHCR), Christelle Castet (AXA), Pamela Chan (BlackRock), Alta Charo (University of Wisconsin), Pedro Conceição (United Nations Development Programme), Jarad Daniels (Global CCS Institute), Reena Dayal (Quantum Ecosystems and Technology Council of India), Gabriel Demombynes (World Bank), Steve Durbin (Information Security Forum), Jibu Elias (INDIAai), Cathy Foley (Australian Government), Christine Eriksen (University of Berne), Kevin Esvelt (MIT), Paul Freemont (Imperial College), Carl Frey (University of Oxford), Umberto Fugiglando (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Pascale Fung (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Alexis Goosdeel (European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction), Tobias Grimm (Munich Re), Joyeeta Gupta (University of Amsterdam), Gonzalo Guzman (Unilever), Karen Harris (Bain & Company), Katharine Hayhoe (Texas Tech University), Per Heggenes (IKEA Foundation), Lennart Heim (Centre for the Governance of AI), Jack Hidary (SandboxAQ), Clement Jeanjean (SandboxAQ), Bryan Jones (Baruch College), Alex Kjaerum (Danish Refugee Council), Andrew Lenton (CSIRO), Tim Lenton (University of Exeter), Jürg Luterbacher (WMO), Keerthana Mainkar (Infosys), Ottilia Anna Maunganidze (Institute for Security Studies), James McMahon (The Climate Service), Remi Meynadier (AXA), Piers Millett (Nuclear Threat Initiative), Robert Muggah (Igarapé Institute), Nasser bin Nasser (Ambit Advisory), George Perkovich (Carnegie Endowment for Peace), Hugh Possingham (University of Queensland), Edson Prestes e Silva Júnior (Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul), Daniel Ralph (University of Cambridge), Peter Reuter (University of Maryland), Johan Rockström (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Pardis Sabeti (Harvard University), Samir Saran (Observer Research Foundation), Andreas Schaal (OECD), Rod Schoonover (Ecological Futures Group), Anish Shah (Mahindra Group), Hersh Shah (Institute of Risk Management, India), Asmaa Shalabi (United Nations), Alex de Sherbinin (Columbia University), Che Sidanius (Refinitiv), Max Smeets (ETH Zurich), Dan Smith (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), Robert Speight (CSIRO), Risto Uuk (Future of Life Institute) Karin von Hippel (Royal United Services Institute), Gail Whiteman (University of Exeter), Michele Wucker (Gray Rhino & Company), Sam Yarosh (SandboxAQ).

This report has relied on the expertise of our colleagues who contributed to our thematic consultations: Tatiana Aguilar, Khalid Alaamer, Thom Almeida, Silja Baller, Derek Baraldi, Shyam Bishen, Matthew Blake, Joanna Bouckaert, Shreya Bose, Charlotte Boutboul, Sebastian Buckup, Helen Burdett, Mario Canales, Andrew Caruana Galizia, Liming Chen, Aengus Collins, Roberto Crotti, Daniel Dobrygowski, Sean Doherty, Seán Doyle, Genesis Elhussein, Tarini Fernando, Tal Goldstein, Pedro Gomez, Jack Hurd, David Hyde, Akshay Joshi, Ariel Kastner, Nikolai Khylstov, Aoife Kirk, Andrej Kirn, Connie Kuang, Simon Lacey, Benjamin Larsen, Cathy Li, Eneida Licaj, Sriharsha Masabathula, Jeff Merritt, Helen Millman, Haleh Nazeri, Gim Huay Neo, Derek O’Halloran, Kirsty Paine, Nataša Perucica, Vanessa Racloz, Nicolai Ruge, Arunima Sakar, Supheakmungkol Sarin, Tania Strauss, Kyriakos Triantafyllidis, Renee Van Heusden, Lucia Velasco, Joe Wegener, Roddy Weller, and Eric White.

We are grateful to the following colleagues for their time and help in review: Agustina Callegari, Gill Einhorn, Sam Grayling, Elselot Hasselaar, Sean Doyle, Akshay Joshi, Kateryna Karunska, Benjamin Larsen, Isabelle Leliaert, Andrew Silva, and Steffica Warwick.

In addition to those mentioned above, we extend our thanks to the following colleagues: Charlotte Beale, Sakshi Bhatnagar, Anna Bruce-Lockhart, Beatrice Di Caro, Kateryna Gordiychuk, Jamie Mathew John, Eoin Ó Cathasaigh, Robin Pomeroy, Julia Rignot, and Kirsten Salyer.

Design and Production: Thank you to all those involved in the design and production of this year’s report and related assets: Davide Bruno, Mike Fisher, Floris Landi, Pietro Guinea Montalvo, Jacopo Poletto, and Jean-Philippe Stanway.

Cover image: Tom Barrett, Unsplash.

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